中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网

27 June 2025, Volume 13 Issue 3

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  • Yao YUE, Qi ZHANG, Yuying SUN, Shouyang WANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2025, 13(3): 325-344. https://doi.org/10.12012/JSSI-2024-0047
    Abstract ( 311 ) Download PDF ( 557 )   Knowledge map   Save
    Accurately forecasting gasoline volatility is significant for risk management, economic analysis, and option pricing formulas for future contracts. This study proposes a novel interval-valued hierarchical decomposition and ensemble (IHDE) approach to investigate gasoline price volatility. Our interval-based IHDE method can decompose the complex price process into different components to capture the distinct features of each component, which is helpful for forecasting and analyzing complex price processes. By using interval-valued data, the dynamics of gasoline prices in terms of levels and variations can be fully utilized in this study. Fully utilizing the informational gain of interval-valued data improves forecasting performance. In forecasting weekly gasoline volatility, we document that the proposed IHDE approach outperforms the GARCH, EGARCH, CARR, and ACI models, indicating the importance of capturing features of different frequency components and utilizing the informational gain of interval-valued data for gasoline volatility forecasts.
  • Gulnur MUSSAGULOVA, Nurlan KULMURZAYEV, Bayanali DOSZHANOV, Sarsenkul TILEUBAY, Gulshat BAKALBAYEVA
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2025, 13(3): 345-362. https://doi.org/10.12012/JSSI-2024-0008
    Abstract ( 196 ) Download PDF ( 448 )   Knowledge map   Save
    The purpose of the study is to develop an approach to optimising the investment decision-making process using the dynamic programming method and its further integration into the enterprise information system using new technologies. The following methods were used in the study: System-structural analysis, dynamic programming method, graphical, and tabular methods. As a result of the conducted study, the role of information in the investment process was determined. An approach to the formation of the structure of an enterprise information system designed to optimise the investment decision-making process was proposed. The components of the structural elements of this system are considered — information collection, processing, and interpretation. A roadmap for information support for the development and implementation of an investment project is proposed, the blocks of which correspond to a certain direction of information processing, depending on the stage of implementation of the investment project — preparation, implementation, and final stage. The existing solutions are considered, and ready-made software products designed to optimise the investment process are characterised, primarily from the standpoint of risk assessment. An approach to optimising the investment decision-making process based on the dynamic programming method is proposed. An example of using this method to select one of the proposed alternatives according to the profit maximisation criterion is given. The results of the analysis can be used by the management board of enterprises to optimise the investment decision-making process.
  • Fei LIN, Liang SHEN, Yuyan WANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2025, 13(3): 363-398. https://doi.org/10.12012/JSSI-2024-0018
    Abstract ( 175 ) Download PDF ( 446 )   Knowledge map   Save
    This study investigates the role of carbon emissions trading (CET) in advancing regional high-quality and green development (QGD) from quality and efficiency perspectives. Firstly, theoretical analysis via an evolutionary game model formulates hypotheses. Secondly, a multi-period DID model, based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2007-2020), evaluates the impact of CET pilot policies on provincial QGD. Robustness and heterogeneity analyses assess variations by region, industrial structure, and economic development. Additionally, the moderating effects of government regulation and market conditions on the CET-QGD relationship are examined. Key findings include: 1) CET significantly improves both the quality and efficiency of QGD, with a stronger impact on efficiency. 2) Geographical heterogeneity reveals CET impacts peak in eastern provinces, moderate in central regions, and diminish in the west, amplified by industrialization and economic development. 3) Indirect governmental regulations, such as environmental spending and resource taxes, strengthen CET's effectiveness, whereas direct interventions like pollution control investments may hinder green transformation, adversely impacting QGD. 4) Increased carbon trading volumes improve QGD quality, while elevated prices enhance quality but reduce efficiency by favoring short-term emissions cuts over long-term green transitions. Therefore, this study recommends addressing regional disparities, balancing regulation with market mechanisms, and ensuring a competitive, transparent national CET market.
  • Yun JI, Yongping XIE, Jian CHAI
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2025, 13(3): 399-421. https://doi.org/10.12012/JSSI-2024-0035
    Abstract ( 165 ) Download PDF ( 428 )   Knowledge map   Save
    Developing rural revitalization industries is crucial for consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and establishing a solid material foundation for comprehensive rural revitalization. The "New Community Factory" in the Qinba Mountain area of Shaanxi Province, as a typical model for industrial revitalization, contributes to the high-quality development of rural areas. This article is based on the ocean model theory and conducts a comprehensive assessment and prevention of industrial risks in the "New Community Factory" model. The results indicate that the industrial risks faced by the "New Community Factory" throughout its development process fall into the category of "medium risk". Among them, the policy risk and environmental risk were highest during the period from 2014 to 2016, the economic risk was highest during the period from 2017 to 2019, and the scale risk and development risk were highest during the period from 2020 to 2022. To address prominent risks such as environmental risk and economic risk, it is urgent for the government to implement special financial policies, strengthen talent cultivation and guidance, support independent brand innovation, and improve the internal and external environment to promote the gathering and development of rural revitalization industries. This article not only enriches and expands the research scope of the ocean model but also has theoretical and practical significance for improving the risk assessment system of rural revitalization industries.
  • Yue LIU, Jiacheng GAO, Irina V USTINOVICH, Tatyana A SAKHNOVICH
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2025, 13(3): 422-447. https://doi.org/10.12012/JSSI-2024-0141
    Abstract ( 171 ) Download PDF ( 435 )   Knowledge map   Save
    As an important path to promote the transmission of international knowledge and technology, the impact of two-way FDI coordinated development on one country's technological innovation efficiency deserves in-depth exploration. This study uses the fixed effect panel stochastic frontier analysis model and the coupled coordination model to measure the technological innovation efficiency and the two-way FDI coordinated development level of China's 31 provincial administrative regions from 2011 to 2021, and uses the fixed effect panel least squares regression model, the fixed effect panel quantile regression model, the Moran's index model, the fixed effect spatial Durbin panel model and the fixed effect panel β convergence model to test the impact of two-way FDI coordinated development on technological innovation efficiency. The results show that two-way FDI coordinated development can directly and significantly promote the improvement of technological innovation efficiency in the province, and with the improvement of technological innovation efficiency, the promoting effect of two-way FDI coordinated development has also become stronger. In addition, two-way FDI coordinated development can also indirectly generate significant positive spatial spillover effects on the technological innovation efficiency of neighboring provinces, narrow the technological innovation efficiency gap between regions, and thereby promote the efficient and balanced development of regional technological innovation activities. The research conclusions reveal the positive impact of two-way FDI coordinated development on the efficient and balanced development of regional technological innovation activities, which has enlightening significance for building a strong country in science and technology.
  • Yeqin WANG, Deqing WANG, Xindi MOU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2025, 13(3): 448-463. https://doi.org/10.12012/JSSI-2022-0027
    Abstract ( 129 ) Download PDF ( 595 )   Knowledge map   Save
    In this paper, an evaluation index system for the coordinated development of regional economy was constructed by considering the aspects of regional development coordination, economic development coordination, economic and social coordination, and resource and environment coordination, which is used to perform comprehensive evaluation of the coordinated development of regional economy. On this basis, the impact of the upgrading of industrial structure, scientific and technological innovation, and government intervention on the coordinated development of regional economy were also investigated. According to the findings of our study, the coordinated development of regional economy in the eastern region was obviously better than that in the central region, while the western region had the lowest coordinated development of regional economy; the upgrading of regional industrial structure promoted the coordinated development of regional economy, while the promoting effect of the scientific and technological innovation on the coordinated development of regional economy were partly achieved by its promotion of the upgrading of industrial structure; the effect of government intervention couldn't be well reflected in the coordination index of regional economy.
  • Zhiyuan GE, Kanran LI
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2025, 13(3): 464-484. https://doi.org/10.12012/JSSI-2024-0072
    Abstract ( 121 ) Download PDF ( 430 )   Knowledge map   Save
    This paper investigates the influence of various knowledge roles on knowledge diffusion empirically. Exponential random graph models (ERGM) are constructed, which provides a novel perspective for examining the factors that influence knowledge diffusion. Our empirical findings reveal that the endogenous structural effects of the network have a significant impact on the formation of diffusion relationships in citation networks and that there is a correlation between the number of the three knowledge roles - contributors, seekers and brokers - and the likelihood of citation relationship formation in citation networks.
  • Hongbing ZHANG, Zengliang LIU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2025, 13(3): 485-496. https://doi.org/10.12012/JSSI-2023-0124
    Abstract ( 137 ) Download PDF ( 423 )   Knowledge map   Save
    Quantum computation and artificial intelligence for military applications bring new capabilities, leading toquantum warfare. In this paper, we present a Holistic Warfare Model, introduced as a high-dimensional entangled warfare category including asymmetric conflicts. Its underlying metaphysics is entangled states fusion: This is the macroscopic entanglement concept inspired by high-dimensional quantum computation with the entangled wave-functions. From this entangled view, wars and battles are seen essentially as a holistic phenomenon: The distinct operation behaviors within different battlefields tend to the worldwide war. The mathematical Holistic Warfare framework developed in this paper expresses this fundamental view of arbitrary many interaction conflicts, each of them defined by its own battle-manifold and evolution simultaneously on the planet; we call this entangled category mathcal{WAR}. At last, we introduce the research directions in terms of the future wars, such multilateral conflict, cognitive warfare, biological warfare and unmanned operation so on.