中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网

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  •  
    Yuyan WANG, Luping DING, T.C.E. CHENG, Dexia WANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(4): 405-426. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0046

    The online review function helps consumers grasp more real product information and reduce the possibility of returning, but it may also damage firms' reputations or profits. However, few studies considered the relationship between online reviews and consumer returns. Based on this, we develop an e-commerce supply chain (E-SC) game model consisting of a single manufacturer and a single e-platform, aiming to explore the relationship between consumer returns and online reviews and to analyze the impact on both the decision-making of E-SC members and their profits. We find that there is a negative relationship between consumer returns and online reviews of product quality, and consumer returns make the pricing decisions in the two scenarios of yes/no online reviews move toward two different directions. Only when the online review is positive and higher than a certain threshold will it have a positive impact on sales and E-SC members' profits. Finally, we design a new "commission joint returns and quality improvement costs sharing" contract to optimize the decentralized model with online reviews, and we find that the higher the accuracy of product information, the less conducive the contract applied to E-SC.

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    Yuan ZENG, Meng WANG, Qianqian ZHANG, Lijuan DING, Jun WU, Ernesto D. R. SANTIBANEZ GONZALEZ
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(4): 488-502. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-E2022105

    Industrial relocation and ecological subsidy are viewed as effective ways to overcome transboundary industrial pollution. In this paper, we study the transboundary industrial pollution control problem in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the context of industrial relocation. Firstly, we construct an economic model of pollution control with relevant variables such as environmental tax and environmental damage coefficient. Secondly, we solve the economic contributions by using the proportional split-off solution. Finally, we compare the optimal relocation quantity and welfare functions in both cooperative and non-cooperative cases. Our research finds that: 1) The optimal strategy is closely related to utility coefficient, environmental loss coefficient and incentive intensity coefficient. 2) The welfare function and the optimal relocation quantity in the cooperative case are significantly greater than those in the non-cooperative case. Based on the analysis, some suggestions are provided for transboundary industrial pollution management.

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    Ping ZHAO, Shouyang WANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(6): 655-670. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0068

    We conduct an empirical analysis of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect to reveal the dynamic impacts of stock connect trading activity on the stock pool's Amihud illiquidity proxy, index return, and CNY-HKD exchange rate. From pairwise conditional g causality analysis, we note a mutual significant causal connection between northbound net buying volume and Shanghai stock exchange return on all frequency levels. Meanwhile, we find a significant causal impact on the Shanghai portfolio's liquidity from northbound net buying volume. And there is a significant causal impact from the southbound net buying volume on Hang Seng Index return. Both are significant at the low-frequency level. In particular, northbound trading activity stimulates the Shanghai portfolio's liquidity in the low trading activity regime from the threshold VAR analysis. In robust analysis, we find similar significant dynamic causal connection and stimulation effects for the northbound trades when replacing Amihud illiquidity with the turnover rate. The result might relate to the investment behaviors looking for opportunity in the low trading activity regime. In contrast, the investors' beliefs may vary in the high trading activity regime, which weakens the connection between trading activities and other factors like liquidity.

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    Xinping MA, Yiru WANG, Jianping LI, Biao SHI
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(1): 1-24. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0063

    Due to information asymmetry and strategic innovation, firms often encounter challenges related to insufficient driving forces and low-quality innovation outcomes. Analysts always act as information intermediaries who help foster the advancement of corporate innovation activities and the conversion of innovation output. This study examines the impact of analyst coverage and forecasting bias on corporate innovation, employing data from China A-shared listed firms spanning the period 2007 to 2019. We measure corporate innovation from two perspectives: Input and output. Specifically, we use the ratio of research and development (R&D) expenditure to sales as a proxy for the innovation input and the number of patent citations excluding self-citations to measure innovation output. We find that analyst coverage promotes corporate innovation, which is consistent with the "bright" side of analyst coverage. However, the positive effect of analyst coverage hinges on effectively transmitting and disclosing accurate information to investors in the capital market. Based on this, analysts' forecasting bias includes forecasting dispersion and optimism bias. We find evidence that an increase in analysts' forecast dispersion leads to a decrease in corporate innovation quality. Moreover, this paper presents a novel approach by employing the regression discontinuity method to examine the effect of analyst optimistic bias on firm innovation. The empirical findings reveal that overly optimistic forecasts by analysts exacerbate innovation quality. These analyses enrich the research on analyst coverage and corporate innovation, providing an empirical basis for improving the capital market with the help of analysts.

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    Shengxia XU, Jiahui YANG, Qiang LIU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(5): 535-561. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-E2022104

    The space-temporal evolution of economic inequality is examined with Markov chain test method, and the dynamic interrelationships among environmental quality, energy consumption, and economic inequality in China from the province-level are tested by focusing on accounting for structural shifts in causal linkages in this paper. We first employ the Toda-Yamamoto causality framework and then augment it with a Fourier approximation which captures structural changes as a smooth process. The empirical findings show that taking into account smooth structural shifts is important for the causal linkages between economic inequality and energy consumption, and also between environmental quality and energy consumption. The causality analysis with structural changes provides a causal linkage between economic inequality and energy consumption in 26 out 30 provinces and a causal linkage between environmental quality and energy consumption in 7 out 30 provinces, while the quantities are 22 out 30 and 5 out 30 respectively when not accounting for structural shifts. These findings are consistent with the fact that provincial economics in China have experienced structural changes in economy-environment-energy sectors. We also conduct additional analyses which point out that regional and cyclical dependency matter for the causal relationships, and the method of HP filtering can not effectively solve the problem of smooth shifts in economy-environment-energy causality.

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    Enyuan LI, Hongyu LIU, Enwei ZHU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(1): 25-46. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0155

    The land price in big cities draws much attention and discussion for its skyrocketing appreciation. Most researches are from the macro perspective due to data restriction. This paper aims to investigate the critical factors in the price formation process of a land auction, using the listing auction micro bidding-level data in Beijing from 2013 to 2018. We construct a model for the relationship between quitting price and land, bidder's characteristics, housing market conditions and competitive intensity (including private and public signals), then we use OLS for identification. We find that competitive intensity increases the quitting price by causing competition and interaction between bidders. More importantly, we find evidence of cheating behavior in the land market. Results show that bidders have higher quitting prices when they are in a joint venture, and when a central SOE developer or a top10 developer exist in the joint venture. We also find different behavior of developers in the short run and long run. Our research contributes to the literature of land auctions by analyzing the price formation process and developers' behavior. We also provide supporting evidence for the government to make adjustments of the auction system and identify the cheating developers.

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    Amina AILIGENG, Fengbin LU, Shouyang WANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(5): 562-579. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2022-0024

    This paper proposes a new time-varying parameter distributed lag (DL) model. In contrast to the existing methods, which assume parameters to be random walks or regime shifts, our method allows time-varying coefficients of lagged explanatory variables to be conditional on past information. Furthermore, a test for constant-parameter DL model is introduced. The model is then applied to examine time-varying causal effect of inventory on crude oil price and forecast weekly crude oil price. Time-varying causal effect of US commercial crude oil inventory on crude oil price return is presented. In particular, the causal effect of inventory is occasionally positive, which is contrary to some previous research. It's also shown that the proposed model yields the best in and out-of-sample performances compared to seven alternative models including RW, ARMA, VAR, DL, autoregressive-distributed lag (ADL), time-varying parameter ADL (TVP-ADL) and DCB (dynamic conditional beta) models.

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    Guang YANG, Xiaoyu LIU, Dingxuan ZHANG, Yunjie WEI
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(1): 47-63. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-E2022029

    During the COVID-19 pandemic, the international financial markets experienced severe turbulence. Under the background of "Made in China 2025", substantial entity enterprises have a large demand for non-ferrous metals. With the enhancement of financial attributes of non-ferrous metals, it is vital to prevent financial systemic risk contagion in the non-ferrous metal markets. In this article, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to decompose the prices of eight important non-ferrous metals futures, and then the dynamic DY risk spillover index model is established from the perspectives of long-term and short-term. The risk spillover between non-ferrous metals during the COVID-19 is quantitatively analyzed from different frequency domains. The study finds that in the long run, the risk spillover relationship between non-ferrous metals remained basically stable, and the change of it after the epidemic is slight. In the short run, the risk spillover relationship has different degrees of structural changes after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method can distinguish the risk spillovers in different cycles, and help to formulate policies for preventing systemic risks in the non-ferrous metal markets according to the different length of terms.

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    Peilong WANG, Jin XIAO
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(6): 691-725. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0127

    To analyze the influencing factors on the growth of economic and management talents in China's Sichuan Province, this paper constructs an analysis framework for the growth of economic and management talents, takes 340 economic management scholars in 53 higher education institutions in Sichuan Province as the research objects, uses CV analysis to organize their CVs and information, and constructs an evaluation index system combined with system science theory for the influencing factors from five dimensions: Educational experience, work experience, research experience, part-time experience, and award experience. Correlation analysis and structural equation model are used to systematically analyze the influencing factors on the growth of economic and management talents. The experimental results show that work experience, research experience, and award experience have a direct positive significant influence on talent growth; research experience and award experience play mediating roles in the influence of talent growth. This paper enriches the theoretical dimensions of this research field and explores the interactions among these factors. It also helps to improve the cultivation and development mode of economic and management talents in the western region. Furthermore, it provides guidance and reference for the role of talents in promoting economic growth, industrial upgrading, and sustainable development.

  • Majida LAAZIRI, Khaoula BENMOUSSA, Abdelaziz EL ALAOUI EL AMRANI, Ahmed MOUCHTACHI
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(5): 636-654. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2022-0033
    Project portfolio management is a major challenge for some organizations. In most organizations, there are a large number of projects active at the same time, some not necessarily delivering value or not aligned with their strategic goals. Also universities face a lot of uncertainties when selecting and prioritizing the projects that make up their portfolio. In addition, the achievement of those who are aligned with the strategy of the university becomes a great challenge. So to ensure good project portfolio management, the implementation of selection and prioritization methods and processes becomes important. For the project portfolio management to be effective, it is necessary to establish a structured method adapted to the needs and strategy of the university. In this context, this paper proposes a method for selecting and prioritizing projects within the framework of the portfolio management dedicated to universities, which can promote harmony between the university's strategy, the needs and the priority objectives for enable better decision-making. This method is based on the processes of the COBIT 5 good practice framework, and on the multi-criteria decision-making methods AHP, TOPSIS and the WSM technique, thus, it proposes seven project selection criteria based on the five axes IT governance strategies and two catalysts derived from COBIT 5 enablers. The evaluation and validation of this method was applied in the portfolio management of the Abdelmalek Essaadi Moroccan University (AUE). The result shows that this proposed method has made it possible to make a better selection and prioritization of the portfolio of projects of Abdelmleek Essaadi University having the most value.
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    Likang ZHANG, Jichang DONG, Zhi DONG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(2): 161-190. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0027

    This paper studies the regional differences, dynamic evolution and influencing factors of regional carbon emission intensity (CEI) in 262 cities and 5 regional urban agglomerations (UAs) in China. The Dagum Gini coefficient is used to analyze the intra-regional and inter-regional differences in carbon emissions, and the temporal evolution of the absolute differences of CEI among regions is analyzed by means of kernel density estimation (KDE). The paper provides an in-depth study on the spatial difference and temporal evolution of CEI in Chinese cities and major strategic regions. Through Moran index and LISA's test, the spatial correlation of carbon emission in prefecture-level cities is tested, and its spatial agglomeration characteristics are described. It is found that China's CEI is decreasing year by year, presenting a spatial pattern of plow in the south but high in the northq. Based on the calculation of carbon emission intensity at the urban level, this paper conducts LDMI factor decomposition research on carbon emission intensity at the national and key regions, and analyzes the impact of the impact factors on carbon emission intensity. The research results provide a path for China's green development at the city level and urban agglomeration level, and a theoretical support for different regions and cities to introduce emission and carbon reduction policies.

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    Jie BAI, Shengqun CHEN
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(1): 64-80. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0079

    A method for internal participation in rescue decision-making of emergency volunteer teams considering psychological behavior is proposed to address the time sequence of rescue tasks. Firstly, the problem of multi-tasking and multi-operation within the emergency volunteer team is described. Secondly, considering that task leaders are influenced by behavioral and psychological factors in the evaluation, the required time for the job is used as a reference point, and the expected time that volunteers can complete the job is used as an attribute value. The task leader's prospect satisfaction value for each volunteer is calculated based on prospect theory, and the perceived utility values of disappointment theory and regret theory are calculated to measure the task leader's satisfaction with each volunteer. Furthermore, a multilayer coded genetic algorithm is used to construct an optimization model for emergency volunteer decision-making with the objective of maximizing the satisfaction value. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of this method are illustrated by an example analysis. The result shows that the efficiency of rescue tasks can be improved through decision optimization within the volunteer team.

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    Zhaohao WEI, Jichang DONG, Zhi DONG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(6): 671-690. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0039

    Based on the different premium volatility characteristics of various systematic factors in the A-share market, this paper constructs six representative high-frequency volatility prediction models that consider multiple complex risk structures. On this basis, a detailed comparative analysis of the differences in volatility characteristics among various factors is conducted, and the optimal prediction and early warning framework for the A-share market is proposed. Research shows that: 1) The volatility research results only for individual market indexes are not universally representative. 2) The fluctuation characteristics among different systematic factors and their respective optimal prediction model frameworks generally have significant differences, that is, there is no single fixed combination of model parameters. 3) Complex risk characteristics such as long memory, measurement errors, and high-frequency jump fluctuations obviously exist in the A-share market. The optimal forecast and early warning framework for the A-share market can be constructed by a combination of models that consider one or more of the above risk characteristics. The above conclusions have important practical reference value for the risk warning and prevention of the A-share market and the formulation of related policies.

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    Yuliia KONDRATIUK, Halyna HAMAN
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(4): 518-534. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0038

    The presence and effective implementation of the intellectual potential of construction enterprises is important for creating unique competitive advantages as a response to challenges caused by globalization, the era of the knowledge economy, as well as the development of communication and information technologies. The purpose of the study is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors that contribute to the development of intellectual capital in construction enterprises; development of an algorithm for thorough response by the enterprise to the action of determinants. The following methods were used: Analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction when studying the variety of determinants of the development of intellectual capital; grouping in the process of classifying determinants; statistical methods in the process of researching the reporting of construction enterprises; systematic approach in the process of forming an algorithm of actions aimed at ensuring effective management of the intellectual capital of construction enterprises; abstraction to generalize research results and outline significant trends in changing indicators that reflect the development of individual components of intellectual capital. In the paper, the determinants of the development of intellectual capital are grouped according to the classification features important for Ukrainian construction enterprises. The indicators, the monitoring of which is necessary in the process of implementing a conscious response to the action of the determinants of the development of the intellectual capital of construction enterprises, are studied on the example of Ukrainian construction enterprises.

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    Xiaohong JIN, Jian XU, Cuihong YANG, Qingyun LYU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(6): 726-744. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-E2023003

    To analyze the spatial influence mechanism of talent policy on population flow, this study compares the government work reports of 31 provinces between 2008 and 2020, and quantifies regional talent policies in nine aspects, including talent evaluation and incentives, utilizing a comprehensive, standardized, and continuous approach. Additionally, this paper develops a spatial econometric analysis model and expands on the conventional neighborhood, distance, and economic matrices by constructing a spatial weight matrix that reflects talent flow. The findings indicate that population movement exhibits spatial clustering patterns. The regional government's talent policy, primarily based on talent evaluation and incentives, positively influences population inflow. Moreover, during the implementation of talent policies, local governments demonstrate cooperative relationships. The inter-regional spillover effect between talent evaluation and talent incentives is significantly positive. In other words, a stronger local talent evaluation policy, along with robust talent incentives, encourages population inflow from neighboring provinces. However, this conclusion may vary in different regions and over time. Recently, the spatial spillover effect of population inflow and the impact of talent policies have not shown significant results. Additionally, the attractiveness of talent evaluation in the eastern region surpasses that of talent incentives, while the opposite holds true for the central and western regions. This study investigates the impact of local government talent policies on population inflow and its spatial spillover effect, offering theoretical support for intergovernmental cooperation.

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    Renquan HUANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(5): 580-603. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0043

    Cities generate more than 60% of carbon emissions and are the main battleground for achieving the target. However, there is no unified and standardized measurement methods of carbon emissions in cities. In this paper, we took Xi'an as an example and started by measuring carbon emissions with the new standards. Then, the decoupling of economic development from carbon emissions was studied according to the Tapio decoupling theory. Based on the generalized Divisia index method, the decoupling effort model was proposed to study the impact of carbon emission factors contributing to carbon reduction. The results show: (ⅰ) During the period 1995–2021, the carbon emissions of Xi'an increased rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 6.06%, due to the accelerating pace of urbanization and industrialization. (ⅱ) The energy consumption sector accounted for the largest share of carbon emissions, ranging from 77.38% to 89.46%. Xi'an's energy structure is primarily based on fossil fuels, especially coal, which holds a significant proportion. To achieve the "double carbon" goal, it is crucial to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. (ⅲ) The 10th Five-Year Plan was in the state of "expansive coupling", while other periods were in the "weak decoupling" state from the 9th to 14th Five-Year Plan periods. After the carbon peak year in the 15th Five-Year Plan, it would be in a state of "strong decoupling". The agricultural production account was the first to achieve a "strong decoupling" state. (ⅳ) The government of Xi'an made efforts to decouple, but these were not enough. Technological innovation played a crucial role in the carbon reduction of Xi'an, and was a key factor in achieving the "double carbon" goal.

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    Xinxin ZHANG, Chenglin SHEN, Junran HUANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(4): 427-450. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2022-0011

    A critical problem plaguing regulators in promoting pharmaceutical innovation is to design and select efficient incentive policies. In this study, we develop a stylized model comprising a regulator and two representative drug producers to evaluate the effects of three incentive policies: Innovation subsides, inclusion new drugs in the health insurance plan, and the combination of the above two policies (also called hybrid policy). Our analysis shows that innovation subsidies and inclusion of new drugs in the health insurance plan can both promote pharmaceutical innovation, but their incentive effects vary in different policy objectives. Specifically, if the regulator aims to improve patient welfare, he should incorporate new drugs into the health insurance plan to expand the accessibility of new drug when the copayment level is low. However, if the regulator aims to improve social welfare, he should choose innovation subsidies when the copayment level is high, and the hybrid policy when the copayment level is low. In particular, with a sufficiently low copayment level, the hybrid policy allows the new drug producer, patients and the regulator to achieve Pareto improvement due to a lower regulator's innovation subsidy expenditure, higher profits of the new drug producer and consumer surplus.

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    Xiaolu FENG, Wenhuan XIE, Fanyu GUO, Lingling XIAO
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(4): 503-517. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2022-0025

    To explore the factors and paths that influence the willingness to use sharing new energy autonomous vehicles (SNEAVs), this paper incorporates the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) as the basic frameworks, with gender serving as a moderating variable. Seven psychological latent variables, including performance expectancy, social influence, hedonic motivation, price sensitivity, perceived risk, trust in technology, and innovativeness, are considered to examine their effects on behavioral intention. Quantitative data (n = 1082) was collected via an online questionnaire in Beijing. The ordered logit model was used to preliminarily demonstrate the significant impact of gender, with further parameter fitting confirming the good fit of the psychological latent variable model. Path analysis results reveals that gender influences the willingness to use SNEAVs in multiple aspects. Specially, females are more significantly influenced by hedonic motivation, whereas males prioritize performance expectation. Furthermore, price sensitivity positively has a positive impact on male behavioral intention, but a negative effect on female behavioral intention. Additionally, trust in technology plays a more important role for women compared to men. These findings are crucial in promoting the development of SNEAVs.

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    Xuguang SUN, Jian XU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(4): 451-465. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0016

    In this paper, we discuss the development process of local government special bonds, and the role channels of local government special debt investment in driving China's economic growth. Based on the specific decomposition of Xinjiang local government special bond investment, this paper uses the non-competitive input-output model for the first time to analyze the net pulling effect of Xinjiang local government special bond investment on Xinjiang's GDP and employment in 2020. Two measure calibers are set in this paper based on whether the financing costs are considered or not; in addition, we set up four scenarios based on two conditions: Whether to consider retained fun and whether to consider using special-purpose bond investment to leverage social capital. The results show that: 1) when financing costs are not considered, the RMB77.4 billion local government special-purpose bonds can push the GDP of Xinjiang to grow by RMB42.27 billion, RMB35.12 billion, RMB77.548 billion and RMB69.34 billion respectively under the four scenarios; 2) when financing costs are not considered, the number of jobs driven by the RMB77.4 billion local government special-purpose bonds was respectively 372, 300, 324, 500, 718, 500 and 601, 300 in the four scenarios; 3) when financing costs are considered, the RMB77.4 billion local government special-purpose bonds can push the GDP of Xinjiang to grow by RMB71.876 billion and RMB64.268 billion under scenario 3) and scenario 4).

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    Xiao CUI, Mo YIN, Kun GUO, Yijing WANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(5): 604-621. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-E2022024

    The bond market is an important market for investment and financing in China's economic sectors, and also an important part of the monetary policy framework. The internal transmission of bond market is an important part of market interest rate transmission, which iscritical to the effectiveness of monetary policy. However, few scholars have studied the characteristics of interest rate transmission in China. An in-depth study of the interest rate transmission mechanism and its dynamic evolution between different bond markets is conducive to clarify the pulse of transmission within Chinese bond market and to further unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. From the perspective of system theory and based on the analysis method of Granger causality complex network, this paper finds that the interest rate transmission among various varieties in China's bond market is relatively significant. Treasury bonds and CDB bonds are the two core bond varieties of interest rate transmission in the bond market. Simultaneously, this study concludes that the medium and long-term interest rate played a dominant role in the transmission of market interest rate during the easing phase of monetary policy, while the short-term interest rate played a dominant role in the transmission of market interest rate during the tightening phase of monetary policy. This paper also gives enlightenment and suggestions.

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    Xiao LIANG, Qiwei XIE, Chunyan LUO, Liang TANG, Yi SUN
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(2): 212-228. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0144

    Motivated by the Bagging Partial Least Squares (Bagging PLS) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithms, a novel approach known as Principal Model Analysis (PMA) method is introduced in this paper. In the proposed PMA algorithm, the PCA and the Bagging PLS are combined. In this method, multiple PLS models are trained on sub-training sets, derived from the training set using the random sampling with replacement approach. The regression coefficients of all the sub-PLS models are fused in a joint regression coefficient matrix. The final projection direction is then estimated by performing the PCA on the joint regression coefficient matrix. Subsequently, the proposed PMA method is compared with other traditional dimension reduction methods, such as PLS, Bagging PLS, Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and PLS-LDA. Experimental results on six public datasets demonstrate that our proposed method consistently outperforms other approaches in terms of classification performance and exhibits greater stability. Additionally, it is employed in the application of financial statement fraud identification. PMA and other five algorithms are utilized to financial statement fraud which concerned by the academic community, and the results indicate that the classification of PMA surpassed that of the other methods.

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    Brian Wesley MUGANDA, Bernard Shibwabo KASAMANI
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(5): 622-635. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0007

    In this paper, stochastic global optimization algorithms, specifically, genetic algorithm and simulated annealing are used for the problem of calibrating the dynamic option pricing model under stochastic volatility to market prices by adopting a hybrid programming approach. The performance of this dynamic option pricing model under the obtained optimal parameters is also discussed. To enhance the model throughput and reduce latency, a heterogeneous hybrid programming approach on GPU was adopted which emphasized a data-parallel implementation of the dynamic option pricing model on a GPU-based system. Kernel offloading to the GPU of the compute-intensive segments of the pricing algorithms was done in OpenCL. The GPU approach was found to significantly reduce latency by an optimum of 541 times faster than a parallel implementation approach on the CPU, reducing the computation time from 46.24 minutes to 5.12 seconds.

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    Bo LI, Kai HUANG, Junhui LI, Yufu LIAO
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(6): 776-794. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2022-0004

    With the advancement of society and science and technology, the demand for detecting small objects in practical scenarios becomes stronger. Such objects are only represented by relatively small coverage of pixels, and the features are degraded severely after being extracted by a deep convolutional neural network, which is detrimental to the detection performance for small objects. Therefore, an intuitive solution is to increase the resolution of small objects by cropping the original image. In this paper, we propose a simple but effective object density map guided region localization module (DMGRL) to locate and crop the regions of interest where small objects may exist. Firstly, the density map of the objects is estimated by object density map estimation network, and then the coordinates of the small object regions are calculated; Secondly, the continuous differentiable affine transformation is utilized to crop these regions so that the detector with DMGRL can be trained end-to-end instead of two-stage training. Finally, the all prediction results of input image and cropped region images are merged together to output the final detection results by non maximum suppression (NMS). Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of the detector incorporated DMGRL.

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    Somasundaram DEVARAJ, Nirmala MADIAN, Gnanasaravanan SUBRAMANIAM, Rithaniya CHELLAMUTHU, Muralitharan KRISHANAN
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(1): 113-124. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0087

    Cervical cancer is the fourth most common malignancy to strike a woman globally. If discovered early enough, it can be effectively treated. Although there is a chance of error owing to human error, the Pap smear is a good tool for first screening for cervical cancer. It also takes a lot of time and effort to complete. The aim of this study was to reduce the possibility of error by automating the process of classifying cervical cancer using Pap smear images. For the purpose of this study, dual convolution neural networks with LSTM were employed to classify images due to deep learning approaches inspire distinct features and powerful classifiers for many computer vision applications. The proposed deep learning model based on convolution neural networks (CNN) with the long short-term memory (LSTM) network is to learn features which give better recognition accuracy. The overall model is known as Smear-net. In which 'smear' indicates 'pap-smear cancer cells' and 'net' refers to neural network. The parameters such as, Accuracy, Precision, Recall, Accuracy, Sensitivity, and Specificity are used to validate the models. The proposed method provides the improved accuracy of 99.57 percentage for classification of the pap-smear cells. The proposed approaches demonstrate the effectiveness of our contributions by testing and comparing with the state-of-the-art techniques.

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    Zhiyuan GE, Xiaoxi QI, Fei WANG, Tingli LIU, Jun GUAN, Xiaohong HUANG, Yong SHAO, Yingmin WU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(4): 466-487. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0035

    Aiming at the lack of classification and good standard corpus in the task of joint entity and relationship extraction in the current Chinese academic field, this paper builds a dataset in management science that can be used for joint entity and relationship extraction, and establishes a deep learning model to extract entity and relationship information from scientific texts. With the definition of entity and relation classification, we build a Chinese scientific text corpus dataset based on the abstract texts of projects funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) in 2018-2019. By combining the word2vec features with the clue word feature which is a kind of special style in scientific documents, we establish a joint entity relationship extraction model based on the BiLSTM-CNN-CRF model for scientific information extraction. The dataset we constructed contains 13060 entities (not duplicated) and 9728 entity relation labels. In terms of entity prediction effect, the accuracy rate of the constructed model reaches 69.15%, the recall rate reaches 61.03%, and the F1 value reaches 64.83%. In terms of relationship prediction effect, the accuracy rate is higher than that of entity prediction, which reflects the effectiveness of the input mixed features and the integration of local features with CNN layer in the model.

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    Jing XUE, Zefu TAN, Nina DAI, Guoping LEI, Chao HE
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(1): 125-144. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0055

    Mountain cities are complex asymmetric dynamic network architectures, and the flight of UAVs in this environment is subject to various constraints, while efficiency is a crucial factor in the trajectory planning of police UAVs, which need to maintain high efficiency and safe flight paths between their starting and ending points, but the traditional trajectory planning method cannot meet the requirements of rapid maneuvering of police UAVs. To achieve this, a 3D terrain map is built, an objective function is established for the flight cost in the UAV trajectory planning process, and a planning algorithm called particle swarm optimization bat algorithm (PSOBA) is proposed. PSOBA combines the characteristics of the bat algorithm (BA) and the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) to improve population diversity and resolve the delayed convergence issue in the last phases of BA. Simulation results show that PSOBA is more effective than BA, with a search time for the best solution that is approximately 20.43% shorter and a convergence value of the objective function that is approximately 38% smaller. PSOBA is also able to plan a quicker, shorter, and safer flight path compared to other trail planning algorithms that enhance the bat algorithm. These findings suggest that PSOBA is a powerful algorithm with potential application value in UAV trajectory planning control in the mobile intelligence era.Contribute to the service of public social security.

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    Wei LI, Ying LIU, Haizhen YANG, Sha ZHANG, Binhong XU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(1): 81-95. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0029

    This study investigates the impact of online-to-offline (O2O) platforms, such as Ele.me and Meituan, on offline sales in low-frequency-high-consumption industries, specifically a mid-to-high-end liquor distribution chain. Using data from 77 offline stores in Beijing collected during 2019–2022, the study employs a VAR model to analyze the relationship between offline sales and the use of O2O platforms. The results reveal a long-term equilibrium between the two, with most indicators showing a positive impact of O2O platforms on offline sales. The research provides valuable insights for low-frequency-high-consumption enterprises in making multi-channel decisions and quantifies the impact of O2O platforms on offline sales.

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    Xiaoxi YAN, Muyuan MA, Kaihong LU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(1): 145-160. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0115

    This paper studies an online distributed optimization problem over multi-agent systems. In this problem, the goal of agents is to cooperatively minimize the sum of locally dynamic cost functions. Different from most existing works on distributed optimization, here we consider the case where the cost function is strongly pseudoconvex and real gradients of objective functions are not available. To handle this problem, an online zeroth-order stochastic optimization algorithm involving the single-point gradient estimator is proposed. Under the algorithm, each agent only has access to the information associated with its own cost function and the estimate of the gradient, and exchange local state information with its immediate neighbors via a time-varying digraph. The performance of the algorithm is measured by the expectation of dynamic regret. Under mild assumptions on graphs, we prove that if the cumulative deviation of minimizer sequence grows within a certain rate, then the expectation of dynamic regret grows sublinearly. Finally, a simulation example is given to illustrate the validity of our results.

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    Peng YANG, Xifeng MA, Meng WEI, Chunsheng CUI, Libin CHE
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(1): 96-112. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0135

    To solve the problem that the traditional cloud model can't directly process the textual review information in the recommendation algorithm, this paper combines the merits of the cloud model in transforming qualitative and quantitative knowledge with the multi-granularity advantages of probabilistic linguistic term sets in representing uncertain information, and proposes a recommendation algorithm based on cloud model in probabilistic language environment. Initially, this paper quantifies the attributes in the review text based on the probabilistic linguistic term set. Subsequently, the maximum deviation method is used to determine the weight of each attribute in the evaluation information of the product to be recommended, and the comprehensive evaluation number and attribute weight are converted into the digital characteristic value of the cloud model by using the backward cloud generator. Finally, the products are recommended and sorted based on the digital characteristic value of the cloud model. The algorithm is applied to the recommendation of 10 hotels, and the results show that the method is effective and practical, enriching the application of cloud models in the recommendation field.

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    Qinghua DONG, You ZHANG, Xin ZHANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(6): 745-760. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0145

    A three-dimensional boundary-spanning technology search model including search depth, scope and height is established, and a quantitative calculation method is proposed to dynamically describe an organisation's technology search behaviour and demand characteristics. Organisations are clustered by types as technical, comprehensive, or professional using k-means based on technology search behaviour. Recommendation strategies for various types of organisations are proposed based on this, and the search and supply libraries of each organisation are built by considering their type and search contents. The semantic similarity between patents in different libraries is calculated using a Word2Vec and TextRank model to achieve patent recommendations. An empirical study of the robotics field shows a recommendation accuracy of 0.751, and the accuracy of the technical, comprehensive, and professional types is 0.8282, 0.5389 and 0.7723, respectively. This study considers an organisation's dynamic search behaviour and makes class-based recommendations, with a low computational complexity and strong interpretability.

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    Liwen HUANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2023, 11(6): 761-775. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-E2022056

    This paper introduces the related concepts of the hybrid spherical-shaped dataset and proposes a new discriminant analysis method based on the spherical-shaped dataset (SDAM), then SDAM is further improved by the idea of the class cover and presents the nonlinear discriminant analysis method (NDAM). To demonstrate the effectiveness of these two methods, this work constructs seven hybrid spherical-shaped datasets and uses nine UCI datasets. Numerical experiments on these examples indicate that SDAM can preferably solve the discriminant problem for the hybrid sphericalshaped dataset, but this method does not always work well for real datasets; NDAM overcomes the drawbacks of SDAM and better solves the discriminative problem of real datasets. Besides, it has better stability.

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    Wei LI, Mei MEI, Xiaoyan YU, Jiahao WANG, Tiangeng (Becky) GENG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(2): 229-244. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0054

    In the background of the green transformation of the economy and society, the ESG performance of enterprises has been paid more and more attention in the investment decision-making. However, previous studies have inadequately explored how the ESG performance affects corporate financing costs. Based on the information asymmetry theory, this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of ESG performance on corporate financing costs. Then, taking 1044 A-share listed companies in 2016–2020 as a sample, through the sorting and analysis of ESG report disclosure and rating data, the company's ESG performance indicators are obtained, and an empirical model is built to test the relationship between ESG performance and corporate financing costs. This paper constructs a panel regression model using ESG rating data and corporate financial data and finds that in the overall sample, the higher the ESG performance, the lower the equity financing cost; The higher the ESG performance, the lower the debt financing cost. In addition, it also discussed the moderating effect of enterprise scale and media attention on the impact of ESG performance on enterprise financing costs. The empirical results show that the influence of company size on ESG performance on financing costs has a moderating effect and a positive moderating effect.

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    Wenting CHEN, Wenxin LIU, Pengyi YU
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(2): 191-211. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0136

    This paper examines the data of A-share listed companies in China from 2002 to 2017, drawing on the theory of equal opportunity and market rules in M&A transactions. This paper investigates the correlation between changes in tender offer policy and M&A tendencies and performance. The findings suggest that following the policy shift and the adoption of market rules, companies that secure an exemption from the mandatory tender offer obligation not only exhibit stronger M&A tendencies but also improved long-term M&A performance. This indicates that market rules are more suitable for China and contribute to enhancing the efficiency of the M&A market. The paper also presents evidence of a moderating effect, demonstrating that exemptions from the mandatory tender offer obligation positively influence the relationship between policy change and M&A performance. Lastly, this paper finds that state-owned and large-scale firms tend to exhibit a higher degree of M&A tendencies.

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    Wenqing WU, Xin MA, Bo ZENG, Yuanyuan ZHANG
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(2): 245-273. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0119

    This study considers a nonlinear grey Bernoulli forecasting model with conformable fractional-order accumulation, abbreviated as CFNGBM$(1, 1, \lambda)$, to study the gross regional product in the Cheng-Yu area. The new model contains three nonlinear parameters, the power exponent $\gamma$, the conformable fractional-order $\alpha$ and the background value $\lambda$, which increase the adjustability and flexibility of the CFNGBM$(1, 1, \lambda)$ model. Nonlinear parameters are determined by the moth flame optimization algorithm, which minimizes the mean absolute prediction percentage error. The CFNGBM$(1, 1, \lambda)$ model is applied to the gross regional product of 16 cities in the Cheng-Yu area, which are Chongqing, Chengdu, Mianyang, Leshan, Zigong, Deyang, Meishan, Luzhou, Suining, Neijiang, Nanchong, Guang'an, Yibin, Ya'an, Dazhou and Ziyang. With data from 2013 to 2021, several grey models are established and results show that the new model has higher accuracy in most cases.

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    Zhenchun ZANG, Jielu LI, Meng WEI
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(2): 294-308. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0133

    The probabilistic hesitant fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making method introduces probability and hesitation into decision-making problems at the same time, which can improve the reliability and accuracy of decision-making results, and has become a research hotspots in recent years. However, there are still many problems, such as overly complex calculations and difficulty in obtaining probability data. Based on these, the paper proposes a multi-attribute group decision-making model based on probability hesitant fuzzy soft sets. Firstly, the definition of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy soft set is given. Then, based on soft set theory and probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set, the similarity measure of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy soft set is proposed, and the two measures are further combined. Finally, it is applied to the construction of multi-attribute group decision-making model, and the effectiveness and rationality of the model are verified by an example. The example shows that the new similarity calculation formula and algorithm model in this paper have higher accuracy, and the calculation process is more simple, it provides a feasible method for multi-attribute group decision making problems.

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    Mengqi Bao, Xiaozhen Dai
    Journal of Systems Science and Information. 2024, 12(2): 274-293. https://doi.org/10.21078/JSSI-2023-0081

    This paper considers sales mode selection issues for a two-echelon supply chain of perishable products involving a supplier and a retailer. Consumers' purchase desire is assumed to be positive correlation with the freshness of the product. First, the traditional sales mode is examined, in which the supplier and the retailer play a Stackelberg game. We propose a three-layer decision model for this situation, and obtain dynamic pricing strategies and selling cycle length. It is shown that the retailer has little motivation to order many perishable products so as to avoid a long selling cycle length. Second, the commission-charge mode is analyzed, in which the retailer declares its decision first. In this mode, we demonstrate that the perishable product will be on sale during the whole shelf life under a certain condition. The correlation between the sales price of each stage and the remaining shelf-life length is analyzed. Third, the superiority analysis for the two sales modes is conducted. We show the relation between the selling cycle lengths of the two modes. By our analysis, it is shown that both the supplier and the retailer gain more profits when the commission-charge mode is adopted and the commission rate locates in a certain open interval. Finally, a numerical illustration is presented to visualize the discussed models, and some supplements are made for the acquired conclusions by the illustration.